美元创一个月新低欧元大涨,黄金持稳于1800附近
周四(10月28日)美元触及一个月低点,欧元兑美元大幅走高,因外汇交易商权衡利率市场走势、欧洲央行行长拉加德的言论以及弱于预期的美国经济报告。黄金期货上涨并收在每盎司1800美元关口之上,GDP数据显示美国第三季度经济增长显著放缓,令金价得到支撑。美油大幅回升,尾盘升至83.06美元/桶,知情人士透露,OPEC+联合技术委员会预计第四季度世界石油库存平均每天减少110万桶。
欧洲央行10月决议维持利率和购债规模总量不变
欧洲央行表示,市场对加息的押注与央行前瞻指引不符;加息条件显然不满足。通胀上升阶段将比预期持续得更久,但相信“通胀是暂时的”是正确的观点。欧元区继续强劲复苏,经济风险大致平衡。放缓PEPP的购买速度并不是缩债。供应紧缩、能源价格对近期的经济前景构成风险。
欧洲央行预计2022年通胀率将高于2%,对2023年前景仍有分歧
欧洲央行决策者预计2022年通胀率将超过2%的目标,但对2023年是否会保持在这个水平仍有分歧。欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane坚持认为,2022年后消费者价格涨幅将回落到目标以下,而且核心价格压力不会足够强。少数人反驳说通胀率可能超出目标,并提到第二轮效应的风险。所有决策者都认为市场对明年加息的预期是没有根据的。法国央行行长Francois Villeroy de Galhau表示,除非预测显示通胀率将在12-18个月达到2%的目标,否则官员们不会考虑加息。
供应链瓶颈抑制消费和投资 美国第三季度经济大幅减速
美国三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值增长2%,预期为2.6%,经济增长放缓程度超过预期,并降至从疫情中开始复苏以来的最低水平,因供应链动荡和新冠肺炎确诊病例增加抑制了支出和投资。数据凸显出前所未有的供应链压力正在抑制美国经济。由于生产商人手不足,并且缺乏必要的材料,导致其难以满足消费者的需求。服务企业也面临类似压力,并且还因新冠病毒德尔塔毒株的传播而雪上加霜。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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