现货黄金承压1900,多头须警惕美联储“口吻渐变”
周四(5月27日),现货黄金在千九关口附近面临高位回调压力,市场开始有观点认为,美联储正在缓慢而肯定地趋向于讨论紧缩货币政策。但美元自一周高位回落限制了金价跌幅,交易员在等待本周关键的美国通胀数据。
美联储官方口吻渐变
美联储金融监管副主席夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)周三暗示,他已准备就何时开始减少美联储对经济的部分紧急支持展开讨论,不过他也强调需要保持耐心。
美联储官员本周淡化了通胀会立即引发政策反应的担忧。多名美联储官员近日就通胀问题发表了评论,坚称美联储认为通胀是暂时的,即便通胀开始过热,美联储有手段加以抑制。
不过官员在语气上有了微妙的转变,他们也更接近于开始有关逐步缩减或减少其大规模刺激计划的辩论,特别是颇具影响力的副主席克拉里达之前也承认,谈论政策变化的时机可能正在临近。
疫情要求政策质变
新冠疫情凸显出现存的不平等现象,例如低薪劳工集中在受封锁措施影响最严重的服务业。然而目前正出现一些迹象,显示政策做出更敏锐的反应。美联储已承诺致力于“包容性”充分就业,称被边缘化的群体和收入不平等问题拖累经济潜力。
拜登的1.8万亿美元美国家庭计划(American Families Plan)预计可让500多万儿童脱贫,并包含带薪的家庭及医疗假计划。拜登政府推动将全球最低企业税率设定为至少15%,也正获得广泛支持。
随着各国政府斥巨资刺激受到抗疫封锁打击的经济,人们越来越担心通胀将在全球经济中卷土重来。这为黄金提供了支持,理由是在全球各国央行提高利率以消除通胀之前,通胀就会扎根,从而让黄金得以发挥其对冲价格上涨的传统作用。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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