美元触底反弹,金价疲态初显
周四(5月27日)亚洲时段,现货黄金小幅下挫,交投于1894附近。周三(5月26日)金价冲高回落,收跌0.14%,主要因为美元及美债收益率录得上涨,另外,逆回购规模不断攀升,美联储官员夸尔斯对讨论缩减购债也持开放态度,这些因素共同拖累金价从四个半月高位回落。
欧洲央行官员称放慢购债没有任何道理
欧洲中央银行执委会委员Fabio Panetta说,如果存在持续的通胀压力迹象,将使官员们减少紧急债券购买量,但他没有看到这种迹象。
Panetta在周三发布的《日本经济新闻》采访中说,有通胀压力持续增加,反映出基础通胀率的上升趋势,并使通胀和通胀预期与我们的目标一致,才有理由减少购买量。
他说,但这不是我们在3月份的预期,从那时起,我还没有看到融资条件或经济前景的变化,足以使通胀路径改变向上。
Panetta也提及欧元最近的上涨,他说,我们也看到汇率持续且令人难以忽视地升值,这不足为奇,如果持续下去,这将削弱通胀压力。
市场预计欧洲央行货币紧缩的步伐将慢于美联储,欧洲央行维持宽松政策也有利于金价上涨。
美元及美债收益率上涨
金价周三跌破每盎司1900美元的关键水平,因美元和美国公债收益率反弹打击黄金吸引力,不过对美联储持续鸽派立场的预期令跌幅受限。
OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示,美国收益率上升和美元走强给了一些人出脱黄金的借口。但我们仍将看到金价继续上涨,1950美元这一水平似乎是一个非常短期的目标。
指标美国10年期国债收益率走高1.09%,增加了持有不孽息黄金的机会成本,美元指数从低位反弹0.43%,使黄金对其他货币的持有者来说变得昂贵。
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(美元指数日线图)
大田环球分析师认为,黄金价格近期的涨势或许难以持续。他说:“我们认为,未来几个月通货膨胀率将趋平,美联储官员的鸽派论调将减弱,并且会希望提高名义利率;我们预计黄金在未来几个月内将走低。”
市场现在关注将于本周晚些时候出炉的重要美国经济数据,包括国内生产总值(GDP)、初请失业金人数和消费者支出。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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