听证会促进经济，黄金维持窄幅震荡
关键词：听证会促进经济
1月19日，现货黄金在关口附近窄幅震荡，由于美元处于承压，更多刺激措施的出台前景提振了黄金作为对冲工具的吸引力，同时美国财长提名人耶伦表示，不会压低本币汇率来获取相对优势。
在美国参议院对财政部长候选人耶伦的提名确认听证会上，耶伦力陈对当选总统拜登1.9万亿美元的刺激计划的支持，称其对美国经济至关重要。耶伦还表示，美国不会以压低本币汇率来获取相对优势，并称若其财长提名得到确认，也将反对其他国家以任何行动来推行这种战略。
耶伦讲话后，现货黄金反应平淡，在1837-1843美元区间窄幅波动。由于美债收益率上升和经济复苏的前景削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，金价在2020年大涨之后，今年大致处于横盘波动的状态。ThinkMarkets的市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada在周二的报告中表示，大多数风险资产在上涨，看起来通货再膨胀交易在卷土重来，这种乐观情绪在一定程度上反映了关于政府将加大支出的预期。
有分析指出，耶伦关于美元的讲话，意味着美国自克林顿政府以来所奉行，直到被现任总统特朗普实质上抛弃的强美元政策即将回归；特朗普及其财政部长姆努钦均强调美元贬值的好处，特别是对出口和购买力的有利影响。姆努钦曾表示“美元过强”可能有损经济。
美国财政部长提名人珍妮特·耶伦可能会更全盘考虑美元政策，改变特朗普政府聚焦贸易的政策思路。耶伦“认识到美元的大幅波动可能会产生重大的金融影响（例如对美元债务持有人的影响），这通常比直接贸易影响要大得多”，这将使耶伦更加“谨言”。
关键因素似乎是美元，美元走势是最近几天黄金市场走势的最佳预测因素。债券市场显然也处于变化之中，并且我们可能已经看到了这轮周期中利率会维持低位，这些将是今年黄金交易员的主要考虑因素。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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