美债收益率攀升，金价跌幅有限
关键词：美债收益率攀升
1月7日，由于美元走强和美债收益率攀升，现货黄金出现较多跌幅，但美国民主党政府可能会出台进一步的财政刺激措施，市场情绪较为乐观，黄金资产连续增长，短期内黄金的跌幅有限。
周四一早，国会正式宣布拜登为下任美国总统，特朗普承诺会“有序过渡”。在周四交易中，美股大涨，三大指数再创历史新高；美元指数从数年低点大幅反弹，一度刷新近一周高点至89.97；10年期美债收益率续刷2020年3月以来高点至1.086%，这些因素均降低了黄金对持有者的吸引力。
值得注意的是，交易所买卖基金(ETF)持有的黄金规模连续第11天增长，持续时间接近四个月以来最长，缓解了有关投资者的黄金需求可能正开始减弱的担忧。黄金ETF的资产周三攀升至3341.1吨，是11月末以来的最高水平。去年10月，黄金ETF的持仓量创下近3460吨的历史新高。
黄金ETF是金价8月份飙升至创纪录水平的关键支撑力量，但是由于美国经济刺激方案陷入僵局以及新冠疫苗的推出，黄金ETF在2020年最后两个月下跌。尽管黄金在过去两天一直因债券收益率上升而承受压力，但ETF持有量的反弹可能表明投资者对金价仍保持在上升轨道上抱有信心，并且推出进一步的疫情纾困措施的前景和持续的经济不确定性也给价格带来支持。
当前现货黄金不仅像预期的那样在短期、中期和长期移动平均线上方企稳，而且还打破了去年8月以来的下行趋势。我们仍然认为，8月以来的疲软是黄金长期牛市中的一种调整。若能顺利突破去年11月的高点1966水平，则表明金价再次转向牛市趋势，料将持续走高至当前历史高位2075美元，并最终突破2300美元。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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