无协议脱欧概率提升，英镑持续萎靡
关键词：无协议脱欧概率提升
12月22日，英镑出现连续走低，由于英国渔业提议被欧盟拒绝，当市场对英国无协议脱欧的忧虑再度提升，虽然市场对英国疫情的恶化逐渐趋于平静，但市场仍认为疫苗会带动经济全面反弹，限制英镑下行空间。
英国官员称英国在脱欧谈判中最新的渔业提议被欧盟拒绝，欧盟无法接受英国最新的脱欧提议。据政治类专业网站POLITICO报道，英国首相约翰逊和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩已于周一就渔业问题进行了对话。
同时，英国实施新的封锁和旅行限制，也进一步压低了英镑。对新冠状病毒“失控”的恐慌已经导致往返英国的航班被禁止，法国部分关闭了边境，造成了长时间的交通堵塞。
据英国知名媒体当地时间12月21日报道，世界卫生组织当日指出，不要对在英国发现的传播力更强的新冠变种病毒过于惊慌，情况尚未失控，这是疫情演变的正常现象，可以由相关措施加以控制。世卫组织突发卫生事件规划执行主任迈克尔·瑞安（Mike Ryan）在简报中提到，保持透明度非常重要，保证公众信息知情也非常重要，但也必须了解，这是病毒进化的正常情况。瑞安表示：“能够紧密、仔细、实时追踪病毒，对于全球公共卫生而言是一项真正的积极发展。”
经济数据方面，英国第三季度GDP年率终值下跌8.6%，预期下跌9.6%，前值下跌9.6%；英国第三季度GDP季率终值上涨16%，预期上涨15.5%，前值上涨15.5%。英镑兑美元对宏观数据的反应相当温和，因为市场关注的焦点仍然是新冠病毒和英国脱欧协商的进展。
由于市场此前的乐观消息已经透支了行情空间，因此眼下即使英国与欧盟之间的谈判达成了最后协议，市场对此的进一步反响也将有限，在此背景下，英镑兑美元充其量也只是会回升至1.35关口，但后市在其他负面消息的影响下，仍然很难守住这一关口。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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