美欧货币政策分化严重，欧元创下新高
关键词：欧元创下新高
11月30日，欧元创下近三个月的新高，美联储将采取更多宽松措施，推动美指创下新低，同时疫苗研发的乐观进展也提振了市场的风险情绪。此外欧洲央行行长表示，货币政策刺激经济并没有各国财政计划来得更有效。
欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，利率将在相当长一段时间内保持在低水平，货币政策不能像财政措施那样有针对性，财政和货币政策的协调起到了很大作用。债务必须在某个阶段稳定下来，但不是现在，欧盟财政计划不能被明显推迟，欧洲必须在提供股权融资方面做得更好。
分析师指出，由于美国大选结果迟迟未决，让议员的注意力不能集中在通过任何形势的财政支出计划上，因此投资者开始预期，美联储将介入，很可能在12月的下次会议上决定购买更多债券。
本周美国将公布11月非农就业报告和ISM制造业及非制造业数据，预计非农新增就业人数将略高于市场预期的50万，而ISM制造业和非制造业数据将低于市场预期。本周的焦点将是，感恩节之后，美国各州州长是否会选择实施更加严厉的封锁措施，以遏制第二波疫情。尽管更多封锁措施会抑制美国股市，但美联储料将增加市场流动性的前景，应会抑制美元上涨。另外从历史经验看，过去10年，美元有7年在12月录得下跌，因此预计美元在今年年底会温和下跌。
未来一周在欧洲央行决议将至，且欧元区封锁措施前景仍存变数的背景下，欧元汇价走势可能出现反复，但之后在年底之前，欧元兑美元将重拾涨势升破1.20并站稳于此关口上方，之后在2021年将在美联储进一步宽松政策措施的推动下继续上升至1.25一线。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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