黄金连涨被终结，黄金未来表现如何
关键词：黄金连涨被终结
8月14日，黄金市场收跌，由于美债收益率上涨，同时美国打算帮助遭受疫情打击的经济刺激计划目前陷入僵局，市场对黄金的兴趣明显减少，加上相关美国经济数据的向好表现，黄金市场迎来更多考验。
来自世界各地的糟糕经济数据，包括令人失望的美国零售销售数据，未能帮助避险黄金。指标美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在七周高位附近，而随着国会休会，对美国祭出新一轮援助计划的希望逐渐消退。收益率攀升增加了持有黄金等无收益资产的机会成本，今年迄今，黄金价格已经攀升了逾28%。
分析师指出，要从几个方面来确定修正是否结束，包括市场情绪、持仓水平、投机行为等。从趋势模型来看，其动能信号100%是看多金价的，从过去走势来看，这之后往往会跟随者长期的盘整阶段。那些过早入场逢低买入的投资者可能面临挑战。由于黄金市场整体极为看多的市场情绪，以及散户投资者的投机行为等，总体而言金价还有进一步回落的空间。
投资者这波获利了结造成的压力短暂，对金价年末上探2000美元的看法保持不变。面对市场不确定因素，金价仍有上升空间。瑞银表示，美联储继续大放“鸽”词，美国实际利率及美元将进一步下跌，同时，美国大选临近，市场不确定性增加。瑞银认为，在此情形下，金价将延续升浪，年末前有望再次挑战2000美元，但是预计明年3月、6月及9月，金价将分别下滑至1950美元、1900美元及1850美元。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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