美元强烈回升，黄金跌破关口
关键词：黄金跌破关口
7月16日，现货黄金跌破千八关口，接近两日低点，由于美元指数的大幅回升让金价有所成大，同时欧洲央行维持当前货币政策不变，也让部分投资者获利了结交易。虽然当前黄金看涨情绪浓厚，但分析师表示，在这样的环境下，黄金多头要小心。
投资者评估中国经济重回增长且美国零售业表现强于预期的影响。在截至6月末的三个月里，中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长了3.2%，扭转了第一季度萎缩6.8%的局面，而且增速高于预估中值2.4%。美国6月份的零售额环比增长7.5%，5月份数据向上修正后增幅达到创纪录的18.2％。近期经济数据有所好转，这一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险需求。
分析师表示，主要题材是，央行在一段时间内按兵不动，还会有更多的刺激措施，但时间要晚得多，这在一定程度上削弱了黄金最近的看涨趋势。
当前市场对黄金看涨的情绪依然高涨，不过分析师表示，在这样拥挤的交易中，黄金多头要小心。在持续大涨，并且整个市场继续大举看多的环境下，黄金市场是可能出现大规模的清仓打压的情况。黄金市场正在从避险资产转向通胀对冲资产，因此金价的表现和风险资产的表现有相关性。
被注入市场的大规模流动性不仅推高了风险资产价格，也推高了金价。因为大量资产要在实际利率极低的情况下寻求收益。正是市场对通胀对冲的需求，推动金价上行突破了多个阻力区域。此外，过去一段时间市场风险情绪对黄金市场持仓并没产生太大影响，但上行动能的逐渐消散使得多头持仓增加变得越来越困难。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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