黄金微涨，疫情反弹忧虑推动上涨
关键词：黄金微涨
7月10日，现货黄金在千八关口上方出现微型涨幅，由于市场对新冠疫情感染病例增多的担忧，加大了黄金的避险买需，同时全球央行的强力宽松政策对金价有明显的推动作用，让黄金保值的作用更加明显。
此外数据显示，美国消费者在案发率上升最多的地区并不购物，削弱了美国经济迅速复苏的希望。新冠病毒感染病例激增也推高了美元，使黄金对其他货币持有者来说更加昂贵。
自五月底以来，该项数据始终维持在一百万至两百万之间，显示在经济重启的大背景下仍有大量美国人失去工作.值得一提的是，由于7月3日开始美国进入独立日假期，暂停受理失业申请也会引起数据的波动，下降趋势可能需要等待下周公布的数据才能进一步确认。
亚洲股市下跌显示避险情绪升温，因市场担心美国政府再度实施疫情封锁。进一步突显疫情影响的是，日本央行连续第二个季度下调了对日本所有地区的经济预期，认为日本所有地区经济都处于恶化或严重状态，为自2008年以来首次下调。
分析师认为金价在2020年底将升至1900美元/盎司，在2021年底进一步升至2000美元，这要高于其此前预估的1700美元和1800美元。原因在于全球央行强力宽松政策仍对金价走势有强势推动，由于市场利率被人为大幅压低，不生息的贵金属投资价值得到凸显，而各国货币的贬值竞赛也让黄金保值作用更加明显。
本周所有这些风险依然存在，基本面尚未发生明显变化。但较长期技术面暗示金价动能放缓，仓位调整指向市场非常多金，暗示短期回调可能。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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