避险情绪下降，英镑或有巨大发转
关键词：英镑或有巨大反转
英镑兑美元在下跌后出现明显转涨，但由于冒险情绪的升温，市场对英欧下一轮的谈判抱有乐观的憧憬，也支撑了英镑的反弹，加上市场预计英国央行将扩大资产购买，若央行没有加强负利率预期，英镑将出现明显反弹。
上周英国央行行长贝利表示，随着经济从新冠疫情中逐步复苏，英国央行准备推出更多刺激措施。贝利周五在接受访时表示，“我们准备采取行动了吗？是的。我们必须为此做好准备，因为我们仍然深陷其中。”
未来一周英镑波动将加大，除市场普遍风险情绪外，英国脱欧谈判和英国央行货币政策料影响英镑表现。虽然近期全球投资者风险情绪有所改善，但英镑仍然是G10货币中表现最差的，但料反转上个月的颓势。
由于英国央行决定审查包括负利率在内的政策选择，以及英国脱欧贸易谈判缺乏进展，英镑维持疲弱，这两个因素打压英镑，因此未来一周可能对英镑表现至关重要，英国经济事件风险很大，英镑波动将加大。
英国央行会议前，4月英国GDP月率录得创纪录降幅-20.4%，加大该央行进一步放松银根的预期，目前预期英国央行将进一步扩大资产购买规模，而目前的2000亿英镑购债计划将要耗尽。英镑前景可能更多地取决于英国央行对负利率的最新看法，如果未加强负利率预期，英镑将反弹。
本周英国央行将会公布价值1000亿英镑的进一步量化宽松(QE)方案，同时还会保留进一步宽松的空间，但不会公布具体的更多细节，甚至可能不会提及。我们猜测更多的宽松方案将会是负利率或是收益率曲线控制措施。外汇市场中，近期英镑前景不太稳定，依然对于风险情绪具有高度的敏感性。英镑同时也会受益于更大的经济刺激方案，但如果出现失望的局面，英镑则将承受压力。在这样的情况下，投资情绪将会决定未来任何走向的幅度。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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