经济前景仍不确定，黄金短线拉升
关键词：经济前景仍不确定
5月17日，黄金出现低位反弹，日内出现逾20美元的反弹，由于市场对经济复苏的前景感到悲观，加上地缘政治局势越加恶化，黄金的避险需求受到明显提振，美联储称复苏经济前景高度不确定。
美联储褐皮书报告称，新冠疫情在最近几周严重损害了美国经济，造成“严重”的失业和企业倒闭情况。所有区域经济活动均出现下降，且大多数区域急剧下降，反映出新冠疫情造成的破坏。调查显示，在实施保持社交距离措施和企业关门情况下，所有区域就业继续下降，大多数地区下降情况严重；尽管许多联系人表示希望整体活动将随企业恢复经营而回升，但前景仍存在高度不确定，大多数联系人对潜在复苏速度感到悲观。
今年以来，金价已经上涨了12%以上，分析师说，在低利率和全球政治经济不确定性的支撑下，黄金的总体走势正面。
在实际利率较低的环境下，黄金被有效地用来对冲风险，因为持有黄金的机会成本很低，预计这种有利环境将持续下去。该行预测，第四季度金价平均将达到每盎司1800美元。
美国银行的一份研究报告称，经济复苏的前景需要一段时间，美联储官员保持宽松政策的可能性也很大，黄金仍处于看涨趋势。上周金价波动不大，但美国银行的分析师重申了他们的观点——即黄金仍处于看涨趋势。他们表示:“美联储印钞可能导致未来通胀，这应会支撑金价。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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