避险情绪降温，金价小幅度回落
关键词：金价小幅度回落
5月25日，由于市场风险情绪回暖加上全球股市的普遍上涨，市场对黄金的避险需求减弱，分析师认为当前表现较佳的美股和美元，让黄金的波动保持震荡，同时当前市场对通胀不佳的担忧也让黄金有所限制。
短期而言，避险情绪可能反而会影响黄金的表现，黄金市场的波动可能加剧；并且避险情绪推动美元走高将影响金价上行。但长期而言，情况则完全不同。
金价仍然在此前持续的震荡区域内，难以脱1800关口。美国CPI数据已经很糟糕了，这表明了实际利率不太可能再低，甚至可能回升，美联储进入负利率状态的可能是很小的。金价可能维持在震荡区域内较低部分。上方在1765美元/盎司，下方则在1705美元/盎司，接下去可能会围绕在1715美元/盎司附近，上方则看向1750。
如果经济出现两种情况，那么黄金将再次走高。在各国央行和政府为应对疫情而采取的极为宽松的政策后，黄金市场没有进一步走高是让多头略为失望的，这背后有两个比较明显的因素。尽管大量流动性被注入了市场中，货币供应量大增，但其流通的速度有明显下降；这当然很大程度上受到美国多个城市居家令的影响，能花钱的场景变少。另外，人们对后市经济以及失业的担忧也让他们减少支出；在这种情况下，通胀就遭到了打压，也就影响了黄金。
另一大因素就是黄金市场目前这种极度看多的情况。在包括美联储在内的各大央行都采用了非常宽松的政策后，市场对金价大幅走高有预期，整个黄金市场变得日常看多。从Hulbert的黄金市场情绪指数HGNSI来看，自4月中旬黄金触及高位后，该指数从52小幅上涨到了54.2，但其间黄金一度回落了约40美元。这表明了黄金多头极为顽固，这未必是好事。
如果地缘政治风险影响了全球经济的复苏，那么意味着各国央行就可能需要做更多。当前整个市场都在观望，金价无论是上行还是下行都受限。对短期金价表示中性态度，但长期看涨，预计接下去的阻力水平为1820美元/盎司。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.