美元流动性带来隐患，上涨趋势接近尾声
关键词：美元流动性带来隐患
由于疫情对资金的压力造成了美元的紧缺，是美元指数走高的关键因素，而美联储采用了货币刺激措施以应对流动性危机，但随着疫情出现缓解，市场上充斥的美元将会产生怎样的影响呢？分析师认为这可能会逆转美元一直以来的升值趋势。
两年来，美元的缓慢升值削弱了全球经济。美元升值一方面是因为美国利率相对较高，另一方面是因为美国政府推行保护主义，引发了国际贸易紧张局势使得现金大量回流国内。
白宫对强势美元的抵制是口头的和例行的，经常指责美联储将利率维持在过高水平，并抨击贸易伙伴人为压低本币汇率以获取贸易利益。美联储则一如既往地坚称，没有设定汇率目标，只希望控制通胀和维持就业。
美联储实施“零利率+开放式量宽政策”，加上美联储美元回购操作向市场注资超1.5万亿美元，目前美联储资产负债表规模已超过5.8万亿美元，较3月初增长37%，值得一提的是此前在美联储缩表的努力下，美联储的资产负债表一度从4.5万亿美元缩小至3.8万亿美元，但是仅仅一个月美联储的资产负债表规模就扩大了2万亿美元，市场预期到二季度末料升至7万亿美元。
由于全球受疫情打击的投资者和企业争抢美元资金，美元融资压力短时间可能依然沉重，但一些策略师以及越来越多的投机客认为，美联储的干预措施可能最终逆转美元两年来的升值趋势。
美联储的资产负债表规模到本季度末可能会增加逾一倍，到今年底可能会扩大为相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的近五分之一，欧洲央行资产负债表的两倍。如果到年中融资压力消退，这对于美元的总体影响将会非常负面。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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