美债有可能大幅升值
关键词：美债升值
2月19日，美元指数出现小幅度上涨，因为英镑下行，市场避险情绪升温转而投资避险货币等因素让美元受到支撑，同时，美国联邦储备委员会大规模地购买美债让美国国债在二季度大幅升值，美元可能进一步走强。
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)大规模购买美国国债正在扭曲货币市场，这可能会让那些押注利率前景的交易员更加困难。美联储一开始试图缓解货币市场压力，结果却对全球一些最重要的借贷基准产生了意想不到的影响。
随着美联储从去年10月开始每月购买价值600亿美元的美国国债，收益率下降。三个月期伦敦银行同业拆息(libor)紧随其后下跌。当这种情况发生时，伦敦银行间拆放款利率(Libor)与隔夜指数掉期(隔夜指数掉期是衡量联邦基金利率的一个指标)之间的差距开始缩小。上周息差收窄至13个基点，为2017年以来最窄，目前仍接近这一水平。
这一切都意味着，押注美联储利率前景的欧洲美元期货交易商的日子可能会更加难过。这些合约基于3个月期伦敦银行间拆放款利率(Libor)，而不是联邦基金利率(fed funds rate)，这种利差的变动可能会使获利的交易变成亏损的交易。
去年8月，欧洲美元期货的交易员也同样措手不及。当时情况正好相反，伦敦银行间拆放款利率/隔夜指数掉期息差大幅扩大，反映出在隔夜掉期市场下跌时，未能跟上美联储对预期进行鸽派调整的步伐。这一次，美联储在供应下降之际购买美国国债，导致利差收窄。
预计美国国债将在第二季度大幅升值，第二季企业也料将退税投入优质基金，这些基金倾向于购买企业债券。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)建议投资者持有6月份FRA/OIS较9月份走强的交易。交易员周二注意到，随着价差收窄，2020年6月欧洲美元期货的看涨期权需求巨大。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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