加拿大数据超出预期，美元有所回落
关键词：加拿大数据超出预期
在1月31日，加拿大公布了11月份的GDP数据，数据结果的表现超出市场预期，美元兑加元从两个月的高位开始回落，短线急速下挫。
具体数据显示，加拿大11月季调后GDP月率实际公布0.1%，预期0%，前值-0.1%；加拿大11月季调后GDP年率实际公布1.5%，预期1.4%，前值1.2%。
加拿大央行在最新的决议中向市场释放了鸽派基调。该行认为，中东紧张局势的急剧升级可能对经济产生重大影响，不过假定这种风险不会成为现实。贸易紧张局势的总体影响预计将使全球GDP到2021年底下降1.2%，低于10月份预测的1.3%。
加拿大央行表示，自10月货币政策会议以来，各项指标喜忧参半。经济下行一些程度上与特别因素有关，例如罢工和天气。加拿大的数据表明，与央行10月份的预测相比，短期内加拿大经济增长将较为疲弱，产出缺口将扩大。
该央行预计2020年第一季度经济增速为1.3%，10月份时预计为1.7%。预计2020年全年加拿大实际GDP增速为1.6%，此前预期为1.7%。预计2021年全年加拿大实际GDP增速为2.0%，此前预期为1.8%。
市场关注美墨加协议的签署。美国和墨西哥已经完成了批准新版北美大陆自由贸易协议的立法程序，而加拿大方面，在加拿大联邦议会众议院和参议院批准该协议后两个月，该新版自由贸易协议就可以正式生效。
虽然特鲁多自由党在联邦议会中没有占到多数席位，但在一些反对党议员的支持下通过新版北美自由贸易协议应该没有问题；现在的问题只是时间，因为走完众议院和参议院的立法审批程序毕竟需要一定的时间。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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