美元加速下滑，金价出现转机
关键词：美元加速下滑
1月30日，由于市场担心公共卫生事件可能对新兴市场造成冲击，压制了对黄金的避险麦序，同时欧系货币的走向打压了美元指数，加上英国央行1月决议压制了降息的预期，让美元加速下滑。
金价于1580美元上方微升，为连续第二个交易日走升，市场担心突发公共卫生事件可能冲击新兴市场经济，提升了黄金的避险买需。英国央行1月决议压制降息预期，令美元加速下滑，鲍威尔对通胀率低于2%的目标并不满意，加剧了市场对美联储今年将至少降息一次的预期，进一步扩大了对美元计价大宗商品的支撑，稍晚将出炉美国四季度GDP，若数据不佳，黄金有望巩固1580关口支撑。
稍早英国1月央行以7-2-0投票支持维稳利率，下调增长预期，预计CPI低于目标水平直至2021年底，到期债券的再投资将于3月9日开始。利率决议公布前，市场对英国央行1月降息几率的计价仍接近50%，鸽派维稳提振英镑短线快速拉升70余点至1.3095，加剧了美元跌势。
美国国债收益率持续下跌，进一步强化了投资者的避险情绪。这是在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)政策更新的鸽派评估的背景下做出的，并进一步在推高无收益的黄金价格方面发挥了作用。正如市场普遍预期的那样，美国央行将基准利率维持在1.5%-1.75%的区间不变。
美联储提及了突发公共卫生事件带来的新风险，鲍威尔预期通胀在未来数月更接近2%，并决心避免通胀持续低于2%。也就是说，即使美国通胀仍进一步上涨，美联储可能持续降息。
但是金价上涨导致一些买家，尤其是中国和印度等主要市场的零售消费者，减少了黄金购买量。2019年10-12月黄金的总需求为1033吨，较2018年同期下降9%。第四季度，黄金珠宝的製造量年率下降9%至509吨，金条和硬币的零售购买量下降了7%至297吨，而央行的购买量下降18%，达到132吨。
市场参与者关注稍晚将公布美国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)。在关键的美国宏观经济数据公布之前，由美联储引导的市场波动可能会进一步创造一些有意义的交易机会。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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