美伊关系紧张，但市场不能忽视牵制因素
关键词：美伊关系紧张
1月6日，因美伊的紧张关系升级，市场担心中东局势面临失控，投资资金涌入避险市场，而且伊朗导弹不对处于高度戒备状态，而美国则持续高压的强势态度，虽然美国制造业数据表现较差，但美国就业市场仍支撑着美元的高位。
美国日前狙杀伊朗军方一名高级指挥官后，后续风波越演越烈，各界对于中东冲突事态扩大的担忧升温。黄金走势延续了上周五(1月3日)开始的避险趋势。
美国国务卿蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)称，如果伊朗军方或其代理人对美方利益实施进一步打击，华盛顿将针对它所选定的伊朗决策者采取行动。
分析师说：“在美国和伊朗之间的地缘政治紧张局势如何发展变得更加明朗之前，市场参与者可能保持谨慎。”并指出紧张地缘政局可能损及全球经济增长。
除了中东局势外，美国上周五公布的制造业数据令人失望，投资人也在关注美国经济的健康状况。本周五(1月10日)将迎来新十年的第一份美国非农就业数据。预计2019年12月份的数据将延续年底乐观势头。
美国今年11月将举行大选，特朗普似乎在经济方面没什么可担心的。去年11月3.5%的失业率创下半个世纪以来最低水准，新增就业岗位26.6万个也创下10个月最大增幅。12月新增岗位料降至16.5万个，但仍远高于吸纳新增就业人口所需的单月增加10万个岗位。
就业状况显示，贸易纷争并未对美国整体经济产生较大影响，美国第三季GDP环比年率终值为成长2.1%。制造业就业确实受到了冲击，但中美有望签署第一阶段贸易协议。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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