美元走势虎头蛇尾，上涨动力缺失
关键词：美元走势虎头蛇尾
美元在今年的整体走势表现得不如人意，涨幅并不明显，同时美国政府倾向于美元走软，而且2020年美国可能进行一场有争议的总统大选，明年的美元走势很难确定。分析师指出，未来美元走势将持续走低。
自年初以来，美元指数稳步攀升态势，在5月中旬触及高位98.38。但自那以来，美元指数走势反转，出现明显回调态势，并在6月25日最低触及95.84。随后，再度开启强劲的反弹走势。
在第三季度，强势美元主宰外汇市场，一度向100大关发起衝击。美元指数在9月末最高触及99.47，该指数在10月1日当日更是触及年内峰值99.68。
分析师预测，2020年第一季美元指数将交投于95.5，明年第三季将降至93.4。高盛策略师认为当全球经济增长回升、风险偏好改善时，美元便会走软。不过该行也指出，由于美国经济较其他发达经济体仍有一定优势，相信美元不会遭到大幅抛售。
尽管美联储采取了一定程度的降息措施，而且保护主义没有解决不利的经常账户平衡问题，但美元在过去一年里还是成功反弹。在第四季度的增长步伐似乎有所放缓之后，由于利息敏感需求的改善，美国似乎有望在2020年初恢複增长。这应该会让美联储永远放弃降息工具，这将对美元形成支撑。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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