美联储维持稳定，经济前景可能出现新变化
关键词：美联储维持稳定
美联储将公布年内最后一次利率决议，分析师认为应该关注三个重点，美联储对2020年利率预测是否会改变，美联储官员之间的分歧如何，目前失业率预期能否下调至低水平。
分析师表示，他认为美联储所谓的点阵图将表明，到2020年利率不会出现变化；尽管2020年仍有一些指标可能暗示美联储加息一两次，但他们怀疑多数FOMC成员认为未来一年不会调整政策利率。
基准联邦基金利率的中间值将会升高，但只是逐渐升高；费罗利认为，到2022年底，中间点的位置该是2.125%，这使得利率政策保持在一个“宽松”的水平，或者在预测范围内支持经济增长。
分析师表示，美联储官员应下调对失业率在不引发通胀的情况下能维持多低水平的预期。美联储向来估计，如果不想触发通胀风险，就不能让失业率降至4.2%以下。但是，失业率已经连续两年低于4.2%。
美联储也可能将他们认为既不刺激也不限制增长的“中性”联邦基金利率从2.5%下调。Swonk说，“在不引发通胀的情况下，美国经济仍能够以低失业率和低短期利率运行。现在是美联储认错的时候了。
分析师认为，点阵图和鲍威尔主席的本周新闻发布会应该表明，在可预见的未来，美联储将维持货币政策不变，尽管在条件允许的情况下可能选择宽松，市场普遍预计，在今年连续三次降息之后，美联储将在12月12日会议上选择维稳。
本周美联储利率决议料均按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔极有可能重申经济仍持稳，虽然不确定性提升，暗示当前政策水平仍适宜，此外料强调实施进一步宽松货币政策需经济前景出现大幅转变。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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