英国央行维稳，英镑短线意外跳水
关键词：英镑意外跳水
11月7日，英国央行如期维持现有利率不变，但两名委员意外支持降息，英镑对美元出现短线跳水。在维持利率不变的同时，央行对企业债的购买规模并没有明显变化。
英国央行声明指出，基于市场利率预期，预计英国未来一年通胀为1.51%（8月预期为1.9%）；预计英国未来两年通胀为2.03%（8月预期为2.23%）；基于市场利率预期，预计英国未来三年通胀为2.25%（8月预期为2.37%）。
英国央行决议显示，预计英国2019年第四季度薪资增速年率为3.5%（8月预期为3%）；预计英国2020年第四季度薪资增速年率为3.25%（8月预期为3.25%）；预计英国2021年第四季度薪资增速年率为3.75%（8月预期为4%）；预计英国2022年第四季度薪资增速年率为3.75%。
英国央行在最新的预期中调整了对脱欧的预测，称随着英国脱欧协议无效的风险最近下降，预计家庭和企业面临的不确定性将会下降。
英国央行并表示，若脱欧和全球风险恶化，可能需要宽松政策；若英国平稳脱欧、全球情况稳定，则可能意味着需要渐进加息。
新的英国脱欧截止期定在1月31日，在此之前英国将于12月12日举行大选。英国央行的政策前景受困这两大不确定性事件。目前两大主要政党——执政的保守党和反对党工党都承诺，将增加公共支出。
但企业仍不确定增支是否有异议。即便首相约翰逊带领保守党赢得大选，并获得议会授权最终实现在1月底有序脱欧，英国还会经历1-2年的过渡期，社会各界对脱欧的困惑也将持续更长时间。
自2016年6月投票决定脱欧以来，商业投资首当其冲，深受脱欧不确定性影响。企业经营者无法看清英国和欧盟未来的贸易关系。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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