脱欧立场坚定，英镑将出现极限下跌？
关键词：脱欧立场坚定
10月7日，英国首相约翰逊表示英国的脱欧方案非常公平且合理，也需要和欧盟讨论相关的细节，欧盟领导人可以看到实质性谈判的理由，同时也会研究关于英国延迟脱欧案件的判决。一旦英国无协议脱欧，英镑对美元将出现极限下跌的情况。
预计英国首相约翰逊将于今日与瑞典、丹麦以及波兰首相进行对话，需要做的第一步是与欧盟坐下来详细讨论我们提议的脱欧方案，不希望看到北爱尔兰处于与英国不同的关税地区。已经准备好与欧盟进行谈判，以确保达成协议，但如果这是可能的，欧盟必须作出与英国相等的妥协，有时限的担保方案不是我们所追求的结果。
具有前瞻性的期权市场暗示，英镑交易员对于英国是否会在10月31日无协议脱欧存疑。交易员们也不预期英国届时将有协议脱欧。指标一个月期隐含波动率，实际上低于到期日涵盖10月31日英国脱欧期限前的水准。这与英国延后脱欧的观点相符。
尽管一个月期隐含波动率仍较在先前的脱欧期限以前触及的高点14.0低了3.0，但仍处于高档，反映出英镑未来的波动风险，特别是在10月17-18日欧盟峰会前后。当一个月期隐含波动率的期限首次涵盖欧盟峰会日期时，波动率跳涨超过3.0个大点。
一个月期风险逆转指标显示，英镑卖权(看跌期权)相较于买权(看涨期权)的波动率溢价仅为0.4，在前一个英国脱欧期限前则为2.75。其余天期的波动率也低于先前高点，但两个月及三个月期的波动率有额外的溢价，因这些日期涵盖了英国可能举行大选的日子。
分析师称，英国与欧盟在以北爱尔兰边境担保协议为首的多项细节方面分歧巨大，在未来两周给定期限内达成全面共识性协议的希望依旧渺茫。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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