鸽派温和，金价大幅回落
关键词：金价大幅回落
7月19月，美元大幅走高，刷新到两个交易日的高点，而现货黄金的跌幅持续扩大，并于高位回落。市场预测美联储在本月降息将限制在25个基点而不是大幅降息。
此前受美联储发出鸽派信号推动，金价曾短暂升穿1450美元，触及六年高点。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周四表示，当需要刺激措施时，迅速采取行动是值得的。不过纽约联储后来表示这些言论是学术性讨论，而不是关于7月30日至31日联邦公开市场委员会可能政策行动，市场因此对美联储本月会降息50个基点的预期降温。
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德(今年在FOMC拥有投票权)周五表示，根据对通胀重新定位的论点以及迄今为止观察经济数据所得出的看法，我希望在即将举行的会议上降息25个基点，这是委员会的决定，我会看看我的同事们对此有何看法。
如果美联储降息，布拉德不赞成结束资产负债表缩减。根据美联储官员近期的公开声明及采访来看，美联储因担忧全球经济增长放缓、贸易不确定性上升及通胀回落等问题，准备在即将召开的议息会议上降息25个基点，进一步降息亦成可能。目前综合各官员态度分析，美联储尚未准备采取更为大胆的行动，在7月会议上行降息50个基点的可能性较小。
不过短期黄金可能面临一些风险。该行认为，全球经济政策的不确定性在增加，包括贸易问题、英国脱欧、美国债务上限等都可能带来风险。在这种情况下黄金会有比较好的表现，黄金和白银能作为多样化的工具，也能对冲风险。在有多个利好因素的情况下，黄金还有上行空间。
如果美联储7月利率决议表现非常鸽派，那么金价有望触及1485美元/盎司水平；但如果美联储没有显得太过鸽派，那么金价可能回落至1400下方，甚至可能测试1380支撑水平。不过金价回落幅度不会太大，并且任何回落都会被投资者们认为是逢低买入的机会。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.