金价探底回升，央行降息开启
关键词：金价探底回升
7月18日，金价探底回升，延续本周震荡走高的行情。而美国公布的经济数据好坏参半，进一步刺激金价波动。同时多家央行宣布降息，全球降息潮开启，金价持续走高。
根据费城联储周四发布的报告，总体的制造业活动指数在6月份骤降至0.3之后，7月份飙升21.5点，达到21.8，升幅是上一次经济衰退于2009年6月结束以来最大。数据也超过了调查的所有经济学家的预期，他们的中值预测为5。
不过，纽约时段盘中公布的美国6月咨商会领先指标则表现疲弱，不及前值和预期，数据重新支撑金价走高。
具体数据显示，美国6月谘商会领先指标月率(%)实际公布-0.3，预期0.05，前值0。其中世界大型企业研究会领先经济指标在6月份降至111.5。领先经济指标5月份持平，4月份上涨0.1%。六个月的年化领先经济指标收窄至0.4%。
美联储公布褐皮书称，美国经济近几周继续以“温和”的步伐增长，消费者继续支出，整体前景“基本乐观”。但报告正文部分的详细信息显示出为什么可能降息，因为企业忙着应对供应链、关税和签证等问题。与全球经济疲软和贸易相关问题是这份报告的主要疑虑。
报告还指出，制造业的表现却平平，仅少数地区报告称制造业出现温和增长。部分制造业和科技企业都出现了裁员的情况。
在美联储释放鸽派信号之后，全球其他主要经济体央行纷纷跟风。这些央行降息的预期也大大升温，全球央行降息潮或已开启。
印尼央行今日亦降息25个基点至5.75%，为近两年来首次。印尼央行认为还有更多的宽松政策空间，这符合低通胀预期以及进一步推动经济增长势头的需要。
分析师表示，目前市场很多注意力都集中在美联储的降息预期，而对于那些可能预测美联储会意外大幅降息，金价会飙升的人士来说，他们可能会有一些失望。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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