恐怖數據超出預期，金價短線下挫
關鍵字：恐怖數據
7月16日，美國公佈了相關的經濟數據，其中有“恐怖數據”之稱的美國6月零售數據超出預期，但美國6月進口物價指數的表現不及預期。數據公佈後，美元指數短線上漲，金價則出現一定下挫。
具體數據顯示，美國6月零售銷售月率(%)實際公佈0.4，預期0.2，前值0.5；美國6月核心零售銷售月率實際公佈0.4，預期0.1，前值0.5。
機構評論美國零售銷售數據指出，美國6月零售銷售增長超預期，表明消費者支出強勁，將有助於減輕商業投資疲軟對經濟造成的打擊。
分析師指出，由於家庭購買汽車和其他各種商品，零售銷售錄得增長；不過5月份的零售銷售數據略有下調。繼4月和5月穩健增長之後，6月份核心零售銷售繼續強勁增長，表明第二季度消費者支出大幅增長。
分析師指出，零售銷售數據可能對美聯儲本月進行十年來首次降息的市場預期影響不大；但消費者支出強勁和核心通脹上升的跡象表明，美聯儲不大可能在7月會議上降息50個基點。
分析師指出，鑒於消費經濟的基本面仍然健康，就業、薪資和信心都處於積極水準，儘管國際緊張局勢引發的擔憂可能使商業信心有所減弱，但零售銷售延續美國消費者的樂觀情緒。
據CME“美聯儲觀察”顯示，聯邦基金期貨暗示交易者預計美聯儲在7月30-31日會議中降息50個基點的概率為28.7%，零售銷售數據公佈前為32.8%。
另外一項數據顯示，美國6月進口物價指數月率(%)實際公佈-0.9，預期-0.6，前值-0.3；年率實際公佈-2，預期-2.3，前值-1.5。
美國進口物價指數降幅為6個月以來最大，主要是因為石油和其他商品的成本下降，這意味著進口通脹仍然低迷。上周數據顯示6月美國潛在消費者物價增速加快，生產者物價小幅上升，不過混雜的通脹資訊對市場認為美聯儲將在7月降息的預期影響不大。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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