黄金回调，美元艰难反弹
关键词：黄金回调
6月27日，国际金价承接上日跌势，并在G20峰会召开前调整仓位。虽然美元指数打算扩大反弹力度，但走势比较艰难。同时美元在过去一周半时间表现疲态，投资者担心全球贸易局势，加上特朗普反复指责美联储不降息。
上周政策会议后，美联储表示，近一半的政策制定者认为今年可能需要降息。主席鲍威尔表示，其他人认为降息的理由已经加强。
但美联储官员在本周又压制了市场对其可能大幅快速降息的预期。CME“联储观察”工具的最新数据显示，美联储7月铁定降息，但降息50个基点的可能性仅30%左右。
中国商务部新闻发言人高峰周四称，中美双方经贸团队正在按照两国元首通话的指示进行沟通，为两国元首大阪会晤做好经贸方面的准备。
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高峰强调，中方的态度十分明确，我们一贯反对单边加征关税的贸易霸凌做法，对那些有助于管控分歧、防止摩擦升级的行动表示欢迎，这符合中美两国人民和企业的利益，也符合整个世界的利益。
分析师表示，G20会议对美联储未来货币政策走向的潜在影响是巨大的，“如果全球贸易局势降温，美联储可能不需要降息；反之则可能坚定目前还在对降息犹豫不决的决策层官员。”
美联储暂停了加息行动，特朗普却喋喋不休，认为美联储在加息和减持债券方面走得太远。但一定程度上是特朗普自己政策造的孽，美国提高关税使美元走强，降低美国出口产品在全球的竞争力。
即使美联储降息，特朗普也可能得不到他认为理想的汇率。美元仍然是抵御全球不稳定或经济疲软的选择之一，即具有一定程度的避险作用。黄金避险买盘仍存在被稀释的可能。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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