避险情绪难以支撑金价，金价后市值得期待
关键词：金价后市
本周股市持续下跌，黄金表现平平，短期内并没有吸引投资者，也没有激起投资者信息。加上金市进入季节性疲软，金价难以走高。虽然市场充满不定性，但投资者仍押注股市，市场的避险情绪没有明显推动金价。
许多人将股市疲软视为一种健康的修正。标普500指数仅比历史高点低3%。市场上仍然没有太多担忧会真正推高金价；但Baruch表示，近期他对黄金持中性看法，因有“坚实的基础”支撑金价。他预计金价将在夏季平静之后回升。
分析师表示，即使面临日益增长的贸易不确定性，黄金市场仍受到美国经济相对强劲的拖累；即使美国经济走弱，预计欧洲等其他主要经济体则会以更快的速度走弱。即使美联储真的转向鸽派，其他央行变得更加鸽派只是时间问题，这将继续支撑美元。股市下跌400点时黄金不能飙升，这种情况告诉你市场不希望走高。
分析师称，在当前环境下，金价最终可能升至每盎司1300美元，但他补充称，金价不会大幅走高。分析师认为，对许多投资者来说，目前的经济担忧还不足以推高金价。投资者需要看到全球经济增长大幅放缓，这将促使各国央行放松货币政策。
分析师说，目前金价处于今年以来的低点，但2019年下半年价格应该会开始上涨。我们预计美联储将在今年12月降息。这将降低持有黄金的机会成本，并使黄金更具吸引力。
此外，降息应该会给美元带来进一步的压力，由于预算赤字扩大和经济增长放缓，美元也将受到影响；该行当前维持今年金价预测不变，预计今年平均金价将为1330美元，四季度金价将升至每盎司1380美元。
分析师说，他对黄金也保持乐观，认为金价突破1292美元阻力位只是时间问题。不过，他补充称，需要看到投资者对“纸黄金市场”重新燃起兴趣，金价才能实现可持续的长期上涨。尽管金价上周表现不佳，但我相信最终将突破1292美元。突破阻力位之后，金价将挑战1297美元，随后是1306美元水平。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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