美股大涨，市场却坚持唱空
关键字：美股大涨
在经历了一连串的下跌后，美股出现今年以来最大的反弹，指数创下新高。不仅是美股，全球股市都是稳固涨势，但是股市资金却在不断流出，大部分资金来自于欧洲股市，市场也在唱空全球股市。
在强劲反弹之后，资本外流应被解读为在有利的市场环境下，投资者通过获利回吐来降低风险，美股可能还需要维持两个月的强劲表现，才能令大量观望资金担心错过而急于重返市场。法国兴业银行指出，基金投资者已经在很大程度上倾向于风险资产。
而法国兴业银行的说法和此前一些投行的警告恰恰相反。本月早些时候，分析师指出，现在投资者对市场充满了“担心错过”的情绪，而忽略了基本面的悲观色彩；
而道琼斯工业指数一来一回的万点震荡却几乎没有让空头闭嘴，空方认为股票在创下1987年以来最佳开局之后，可能重挫。
新手说，“这回空方论点更甚以往，”市场忘掉了贸易问题。大家几乎忘记了这一点。还有英国脱欧，过去两周，没有人在谈这个问题。但我们确实有顾虑。
如果靠企业盈利带动股票上涨，未来情势仍在未定之天。诚然，分析师称第一季料为标普500指数盈利的谷底，到9月份一切都应该会好转。2019年的最后三个月，企业获利预计跳增8.7%，令全年利润实现增长。但华尔街高估企业盈利屡见不鲜，这些预估几乎必然会下修。QMA指出，全年盈利预测通常每个月会下调约0.5个百分点。若果真如此，那就不要奢望第四季获利会大幅回升。
四个月前牛市几近崩盘，如今股市创新高。经济数据也已经反弹，美国零售销售数据强劲，新增了市场信心。虽然通胀仍不振，但随着油价飙升至6个月高点，没有人知道低通胀的情况还会持续多久。基于这些因素，空头会告诉你美联储仍可能升息。今年美联储变卦过一次，难保不会再来一次。
分析师表示，“如果鲍威尔马上再度变卦，会增加隐含波动率，损及美联储公信力，还会致使收益率曲线倒挂，这些都不是乐见的结果。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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