美元疲软，欧元上涨至近日高点
关键词：美元疲软
欧元对美元上涨至近日高位，新兴市场实施的政策对美元指数有一定的承压，市场的整体冒险情绪也有所升温。而欧洲央行将公布4月决议，由于欧元区经济增长以及通胀前景不太乐观，欧元上涨的动能不足。
过去数周强势美元及欧元区疲软基本面均施压欧元，近期欧元区公布的令人失望的经济数据也确认了该地区经济增长放缓，欧洲央行可能在更长期内按兵不动。整体而言，后市美元极有可能仍维持强势表现，从而压制欧元，政局方面，即将到来的欧洲议会选举也提升了汇价面临的不确定性。
相反，投机者持有的美元净多头升至3周高位，虽然美联储转为更中性的货币政策立场，其他G10货币已经重新关注宽松/鸽派立场的延续性。
新手表示，上周五(4月5日)出炉的美国3月非农就业报告未能大幅推升欧元兑美元，虽然数据公布后不久疲软的时薪数据推动汇价上行，但随后回落，本周重点关注欧洲央行3月利率决议，是否释放降息或实施必要宽松政策的信号，欧元兑美元料仍持稳，中美贸易谈判若进一步取得进展，有望推升汇价，而英国即使长期延迟脱欧，也不大可能大幅左右欧元兑美元。
一项调查显示，欧洲央行将把加息时间进一步推迟至明年更晚，因欧元区经济增长和通胀前景已经变差。仅仅几个月之前，欧洲央行刚刚结束每月购买资产的操作，也称为量化宽松(QE)，而且3月结束的定向长期再融资操作(TLTRO)也将于9月恢复。
分析师表示，某种程度上来说，欧洲央行的担忧可以理解，因为它的工具箱已经空了。当然情况紧急时，欧洲央行可以重新启动QE。他们甚至可以效仿日本央行，在某个地步买入股票，但即便大规模实施QE、负存款利率和强有力的前瞻性指引，3月核心通胀率距离纪录低点仍然只有0.2个百分点。因此相对来说欧洲央行可能已经无能为力了
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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