美债收益率倒挂，经济衰退仿佛已成事实
关键词：收益率倒挂
美国经济情况在今年比较低迷，但是就业市场仍表现良好。但是债券收益率倒挂引起了市场的担忧，一些关键词经济数据更是有所矛盾。多项经济数据指标均走弱，美联储可能采取更加鸽派的立场。
从住宅市场到零售销售和消费者信心，新近发布的政府和私人数据均告走弱，促使美联储采取了更为鸽派的立场，利率交易员也开始预测今年很可能会降息。
更悲观的信号还让经济学家下调了第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)预估，并作出了今年开局疲弱的预测。
与此同时，在政府部分停摆导致报告推迟发布后，随着数据的起伏逐渐被熨平，薪资增长状况下健康的劳动力市场正在推动美国经济走向有史以来最长的扩张。
相比于数据发出的矛盾信号，市场看起来更加笃定。美国收益率曲线中备受关注的3个月与10年期利差上周出现2007年以来首次倒挂。在2007年12月美国经济开始滑坡前，曲线的这个部分首次跌破零后不到两年，美国经济就开始衰退了。
分析师认为美国的经济形势已经变得非常糟糕，美联储今年实际上会降息。联邦基金期货合约体现的是美联储几乎会整整降息25个基点。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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