美联储加息，亚洲央行跟不上步伐
关键词：经济发展缓慢
亚洲经济发展趋势较弱，同时物价上涨迟缓，导致地区央行没有理由进行货币收缩政策，特别是美联储加息步伐放缓的情况下，除非是新一轮的货币贬值让地区央行展开政策，但是不考虑货币汇率风险，央行没有任何理由加息。
美联储的政策前景是推动亚洲新兴市场货币走势的一个主要因素，若明年加息不那么激进，通常印尼、菲律宾和印度等经济体的货币抛售压力也会减轻。这些国家的央行今年一再加息，为的就是减轻资金外流并缓和通胀压力。
分析师称，我们对明年亚洲的预测是基于一个事实：美联储将会更偏向鸽派；昨夜之后我们同样认为：货币政策收紧的压力小了很多。
亚洲央行紧缩进程长时间暂停可能促使更多资金流入亚洲债市，使南亚和东南亚的小型、低利率借款方获得一定的喘息之机。
黯淡的增长前景将压制通胀，从而减弱加息的理由。虽然亚洲货币汇率在6-7月期间出现了两位数百分比跌幅，且10月油价同比跳涨近40%，但消费者物价今年却令人吃惊地维持在低位。油价在10月后逆转涨势。
通胀减速以及加息次数减少，多数分析师现在预计如果印尼和菲律宾继续加息的话也只会再加息一两次，这对于亚洲债市而言是利好消息。
过去两三个月投资者已经开始重返亚洲债市，暗示地区央行采取的行动可能已经足以调整风险溢价。
泰国周三宣布七年来首次调升指标利率，但暗示短期内没有进一步加息的打算。马来西亚1月加息一次，韩国央行则是在上一次会议中加息一次。然而，这三个国家央行加息之举都是为了抑制家庭债务，而非通胀。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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