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中美贸易战新一轮开始,欧元迎来多头

关键词:中美贸易战

美国政府下周起将对约2000亿美元的中国商品加征新一轮的关税,中方随即启动反制措施。在中美贸易紧张局势的影响下,欧元整体表现比其他G10货币要更有弹性,因美国和欧盟达成协议,意大利即将公布预算案,同时市场乐观看待经济前景。

欧市盘初欧元兑美元自高位回落可能归咎于美元的温和反弹,因市场对全球两个最大经济体,中国与美国间贸易紧张局势升级感到担忧。

不过鉴于此前市场已作出相关预期,且10%税率低于预期的25%,美元反弹未能长久,盘面上欧元仍维持涨势。

中国财政部网站最新消息显示,国务院关税税则委员会发布公告决定对美国原产的约600亿美元进口商品实施加征关税。

欧洲央行行长德拉基在主题为“欧洲的金融监督及国家机关作用”的金融监管会议上发表讲话称,银行业、监管机构需要进一步努力以降低当前的不良贷款规模,并未提及该央行货币政策及经济前景,欧元兑美元几无反应。

在中国与美国间贸易紧张局势加剧的情况下,整体而言欧元表现将仍比其他G10货币更有弹性。

尤为特别的是,迹象显示美国与欧盟开始接近达成贸易协议,及意大利政府将于9月27日公布财政预算案,这将均令欧元受益。

此外欧洲央行对欧元区经济前景评估相对乐观,强化了2019年将逐步正常化货币政策的立场,较长期内仍看涨欧元兑美元,预计欧元区经济增长及通胀前景将改善,此外汇价仍低于G10货币估值模型及平价购买力模型暗示的长期公允价值。


本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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