欧洲央行科尔：负利率利大于弊
欧洲央行(ECB)执委科尔周四(7月28日)表示，欧洲央行目前的负利率利大于弊，仍处于安全水准，但欧元区还是有可能陷入低利率陷阱。
科尔称，“利率在很长时间内保持在极低水准，可能抑制银行业传导欧洲央行货币政策的能力，且有可能给金融稳定带来风险，那样就会弊大于利。”
他指出，“当前利率离上述水平较远，指标显示银行是欧洲央行超宽松货币政策的净受益者，宽松政策可以拉低他们的融资成本，带来资本利得，并改善信贷质量。”
眼下欧元区银行业者正面临赢利能力减弱、信贷增长低迷以及不良贷款存量上升的问题。这种艰困状态目前在打压股价，提高资本成本，并抑制信贷增长。
银行高管时常把他们的困境怪罪于欧洲央行，指称央行为防止通缩实施的低利率，正侵蚀他们的利润。
由于三年多来通胀未能达成目标，欧洲央行已将存款利率下调至负0.4%，并每月买进800亿欧元(885亿美元)的资产，希望能削减融资成本并刺激经济成长。
科尔表示，“央行人士应该要留意潜在的‘经济上的下限’，即低利率对银行业到了弊大于利的水准，进一步降息将冒着翻转扩张性货币政策立场的风险。”
他认为，“当前金融中介情况表明，经济上的下限正稳稳地低于当前的存款利率水准，而负利率的影响，加上资产购买计划和前瞻性指引，显然一直是有净正面影响的。”
不过，科尔也警告称，如果超低利率保持太长的时间，对银行和金融稳定的累计影响将会升高。
他表示，“很难知道低利率将会持续多久，但看来有可能会维持相当长一段时间。财政和结构性政策行动应该要更为果断，才能支持带动总需求和生产率，进而阻止经济落入低利率陷阱。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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