IMF警告全球性停滞风险
国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二(4月12日)警告称，长时间的低速增长已经使得全球经济更容易遭受负面冲击的影响，并提高了全球滑入停滞的风险。这也有助于刺激避险情绪进一步升温，利好金价。
IMF在一年内第四次下调了全球经济增长预估，并称疲弱的出口和投资减速，使得美国前景黯淡，而日本提高消费税扼杀经济，从石油到小麦各类产品的下跌继续拖累大宗商品生产者。
IMF在其最新的全球经济前景展望报告中预计，今年全球增长率为3.2%，1月时已下调至3.4%，去年7月和10月时该机构曾两次下调经济增长预估。同时，IMF预计2017年全球经济增长率为3.5%，比1月时预估的下降了0.1个百分点。
IMF首席经济学家Maurice Obstfeld表示，“太低的增速已经延续了太长时间，再没有多大的犯错空间。但是如果清晰地认识到共同面临的风险并携手应对，各国决策者则可以提振信心、支持增长并更有效地防范经济复苏脱轨的风险。”
他提出的全球经济面临的最大风险包括金融风暴回归，损害到信心和需求并陷入自我强化的负反馈环。
IMF称，“另一个风险是持续的低增长带来不利效果，降低潜在产出，消费和投资也随之下滑。连续地降低经济展望可能带来的风险是，经济达到失速状态，并陷入广泛的停滞。”
另外，IMF提及了数个政治和地缘政治压力因素，包括美国和欧洲民粹主义的崛起，英国6月份就欧盟成员国身份的公投，以及大量难民涌入欧洲。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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