日本政府下调2%的目标
关键词：日本政府下调2%的目标
上月的日本央行决议认为，国内CPI可能在一段时间内维持在零附近，通胀预期疲软，但从长期看通胀预期是向上。日本政府22日预计，由于出口及企业投资增长乏力，2015财年(始于今年4月1日)日本的经济增长率可能仅为1.2%，低于7月份预计的1.5%。
日本政府认为，随着外部需求减少，日本出口增速放缓甚至下滑，导致企业投资步伐也有所放缓。与此同时，占国内生产总值(GDP)比重高达60%的国内个人消费增幅也将低于预期，拖累经济增长脚步。
展望未来，日本政府预计，2016财年(始于同年4月1日)日本实际GDP将增长1.7%，名义GDP有望增长3.1%至518.8万亿日元(约合4.3万亿美元)，超过2008年国际金融危机前水平，并达到1997财年以来最高值。
通胀方面，由于全球原油价格持续低迷，2016财年日本消费价格预计将比上年增长1.2%左右，低于日本央行设定的2%的通胀目标。
日本央行行长黑田东彦在下午的发布会上表示：今日日本央行的决定并非加大宽松力度，不是为了消除下行风险。今日的决定并不是为了改变QQE的本质。今日的决定让QQE实施更顺利。不认为QQE存在限制。日本央行希望压低整个收益率曲线。
他仍预期CPI将在2016财年下半年实现2%目标。同时表示通胀实现时间可能因为油价而改变。不认为大宗商品价格下挫的背景下能实现2%通胀目标。并将审视风险，必要时调整政策。如有必要，将做出更多改变允许日本央行调整政策。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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