新兴市场成长放缓 资金撤离股市
关键词：新兴市场成长放缓 资金撤离股市
曾经以“高成长”、“高回报”为特点的新兴市场国家如今面临成长放缓的窘境，这也导致了资金逃离股市、汇市和债市，为近30年来首次。
据路透消息 ，2015年资金一致撤离新兴市场，为27年来首见，全球投资者几乎无意重返此间股市、汇市或债市，因诸多新兴经济体成长持续放缓。
当前“新兴市场”证券业约莫三十年以来，在周期性的遭受冲击及资金锐减后，那些在最黑暗时期大胆抢进低价资产的人们通常会获得巨大回报。
但这回情况感觉上有所不同–各界担忧美国信贷收紧、美元上涨的同时，伴随着大宗商品崩跌及中国经济持续放缓，而资金缓慢流出的情况已经持续了两年多。
据备受瞩目的国际金融协会(IIF)资料显示，发展中国家今年将在1988年以来首次录得资本净流出。
一个重大问题在于，在很大程度上决定新兴市场命运的中国前景不明。该国经济增长很可能低于7%的官方目标，而公司债规模高达1.1万亿(兆)美元也已引发对可能爆发金融危机的担忧。
瑞银数据还显示，新兴市场出口亦创2008-09年以来最大同比降幅，受累于中国经济放缓及西方国家需求低迷。
这全都令新兴市场资产便宜下来。MSCI明晟新兴市场股指的表现连续第五年逊于发达市场，且相较于发达市场的折价为至少10年来最大。
各家基金担心这次的危机不会出现大规模违约及汇率大跌，反而是比较温和缓慢的过程，很多过度投资和过度借债的问题或将痛苦地花上许多年进行修正。
因此，市场过去一周的涨势料将很快消退。就业增长放缓引发美国再次推迟升息的预期，点燃了此轮涨势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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