美联储进退两难
关键词：美联储进退两难
自2008年以来，美联储一直将利率维持在近零水平，并三次实施大规模资产购买计划来刺激经济。现在若经济下滑，美联储也没有加息这个政策选项了。
实际上，世界各地目前面临低利率背景下的经济风险。美联储加息预期强烈的一个重要原因就是，恢复正常货币政策将为下次危机做好准备。毕竟上次危机之后，已经使可用的政策所剩无几。
然而中国央行意外调整汇率举措，使得隐藏新兴市场的危机浮出水面。若股市、债券、商品和新兴市场国家货币遭遇进一步打击，那么所有市场将会显著下跌，接下来将会出现“违约、资产抛售，价格下跌”的恶性循环，最终结果可能会导致经济衰退。在全球经济一体化的格局下，美国难以独善其身。如果新兴市场的货币继续承压，那这些国家必须动用外储来稳定货币。这意味着这些国家需要出售美国国债，这将大幅推升美债的收益率。如此巨大的波动必然会影响到美国的房地产市场，进而将迫使美联储维持货币政策进一步宽松，美联储由此陷入两难。我们预计美联储将采取拖延战术，这无疑将为中期金价反弹提供契机。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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