中国2月外需企稳然内需依然萎靡
关键词：中国2月份贸易逆差大
中国海关周日公布数据显示，2月出口同比增长48.3%，创2010年5月以来最大增速，且远超路透调查预期的增长14.2%；进口同比下降20.5%，为2009年5月以来最大降幅，路透预估为下降10%；当月贸易顺差606.19亿美元，再创纪录新高。受春节错位和低基数因素影响，2月出口增速远超市场预期，而内需持续低迷和商品价格走低，令当月进口增速创下近六年来最大降幅，贸易顺差因此刷新纪录新高；在经济下行压力加大背景下，货币政策仍需进一步放松。
总体来看，由于出口比进口强，导致贸易顺差持续保持高位。不过并不意味着净出口对经济贡献上升，因为服务项贸易逆差的持续扩大很大程度上抵消了货物贸易的顺差。去年四季度服务项贸易逆差的同比增速高达173%，导致去年四季度净口出对GDP的拉动有正转负。由于美元持续走强，人民币相对美元汇率难以大幅贬值，因此人民币综合有效汇率的升值导致中国居民海外旅游和消费的热情持续高涨，今年2月份春节的境外旅游又出现了50%以上的同比增长，这会导致服务项贸易逆差继续扩大。此外，在计算净出口对GDP拉动的时候，是算实际价格而不是名义价格，尽管进口大宗商品价格的下跌导致货物贸易顺差上升，但剔除价格影响后，进口量的下滑没有那么严重，剔除价格后的货物的顺差对GDP的拉动也没有想象中的那么大。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.