日本拟下调2014财年GDP增长率预期下调为负值
关键词：日本下调GDP增长率
将于近期出台的经济预期数据，日本政府基本决定把2014财年的实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长率预期下调为负值。日本共同社1月8日称，这将是自雷曼危机发生后的2009年以来，日本GDP增长率预期再次出现负增长。主要原因是消费税增税和日元贬值导致物价上涨，个人消费陷入低迷，日本政府将对2014年7月做出的增长率为1.2%的预期进行下调，计划把跌幅调整至1%以内。
关于2015财年，日本政府则考虑到原油价格下跌减轻了企业和家庭的负担等，预计GDP将有1.5%左右的增长。日本政府将在12日的内阁会议上通过上述经济预期，并在此基础上于14日确定2015年度预算案。
2014财年除增税前突击消费后的需求回落外，夏季天气不佳也导致消费低迷。2014年二季度(4-6月)和三季度实际GDP连续两个季度呈现负增长。尽管日本政府预计从四季度起将缓慢恢复，但仍难弥补上半财年的颓势。
8家日本民间智库2014年12月发布的平均预测值显示2014财年实际GDP将呈0.68%的负增长，日本政府此前的预测被指过于乐观。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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