黄金和美元在2021年将会出现怎样的变化?
2020年,全球已经发生了很多无法预料的事情,不仅全球经济陷入了一个增长缓慢的情况,现在疫情也出现了更多变化,甚至恶化。所以作为全球避险产品的黄金投资产品和美元,在2021年可能会产生哪些变化呢?这是很多投资者所关注的。
疫苗的分发与接种
随着疫情的不断蔓延,疫苗的研究也取得了很多进展,但是各大机构还是对疫苗的分发能力,以及公众的接种意愿感到忧虑。假设在2021年上半年内,疫苗能够及时到位,在全美广泛接种。然而,疫苗分发的物流要求非常复杂,有多少疫苗到位,依然是个巨大的未知数。哪怕分发能够顺利,消费者活跃度的反弹也可能不及预期。
美元的全球走势
其次就是美元指数的走势,在今年美联储先后几次大放水,已经将美国的通胀率提升到一个难以调控的位置,若是美元贬值真的发生,就可能使得放弃美国资产的轮动得到进一步的强化——这一轮动会发生,是因为在危机期间,全球投资者都大幅增持了美国股票。
对于美股而言,美元贬值造成的风险主要是来自三个方面。首先,鉴于欧洲央行实质上已经用尽了所有刺激经济的手段,美元贬值就可能造成欧洲金融环境发生“实质上的紧缩”。
其次,美国可能因此面对通胀的大幅度抬升,这就将使得美联储未来想要支撑经济时变得束手束脚。最后,近几年以来,许多投资者都在进行套利交易,“以欧元廉价举债,投资于美元资产”,但是未来几年,他们和他们的交易就可能遇到麻烦了。
不管未来怎么走向,投资者需要做好的就是保持冷静理智,不要被一些意外情况而导致自己失去判断,应该做好投资计划,方可收获更多。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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