数据向好的非农，背后仍是万丈深渊
在上周四提前公布的非农数据中，数据明显向好，新增就业人口480万人，但除了个别人在吹嘘之外，市场大部分投资者对于这个明显向好的非农数据并没有明显的投资意向。虽然非农数据向好，但美元仍面临巨大的危机。
填坑速度比不上挖坑速度
市场认为这次非农数据，虽然表面上想好，但实际情况则需要结合当前美国的疫情情况。虽然政府不遗余力地股东复工，但仍有大约一千万个就业岗位愿意等待补贴的到来，这也表明了相关企业对于经济复苏前景的担忧。而且目前就业市场的恢复程度比较低，并没有出现明显的V型反转。永久失业人数增长的趋势还没有出现拐点，随着破产企业数量的增加与政府补贴结束，永久失业人数还会继续增加。
别无选择的美联储
面对如此巨大的就业缺口，美联储没有办法，只能一方面刺激经济来鼓动复工，另一方面则是持续宽松政策来为市场兜底。如果想要失业率降到4%，单靠存量肯定不够，就业市场必须要提供数百万新增就业机会。增量工作岗位必然需要巨额投资，这些钱最终是要来自于美联储的大量印钞。
失业率是美联储制定货币政策时重点参考的数据。只要失业率不能显著的恢复到疫情前的水平（4%），美联储的货币政策就不可能发生转向。如果有迹象表明，当前程度的宽松货币政策不能推动失业率显著下降到4%的水平，那么美联储别无选择，只能继续加码宽松政策。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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