阿根廷“赖账”了,该如何处理?
在2018年,IMF对阿根廷政府签署了金额为570亿美元的救助协议,并在之后对阿根廷的信贷额度审查中,表明阿根廷的债务可持续,也就是可以继续借钱给阿根廷,但在2020年2月19日,IMF发布声明表示,阿根廷货币的大幅贬值,外汇储备缩水等情况,让经济陷入衰退,当前债务不可持续。那出现者前后矛盾的声明是什么意思呢?
阿根廷政府内部矛盾尖锐
当前的阿根廷政府,是由多个敌对势力组成的,本身的内部矛盾就已经十分尖锐了,在这个背景下,很多相关政策都难以有效执行。同时阿根廷政府打算通过提高农业出口、旅游等的税收和减少支出等举措,减少财政赤字,但之后政府的宽松政策,推动了最快的货币扩张,耗尽阿根廷人民的钱包,同时阿根廷债券暴跌的情况也将阿根廷的经济衰退情况进一步拉大,经济危机推动至临爆点,目前IMF想要收回自己的贷款,几乎是微乎其微。
还债机会还有但很微弱
那阿根廷政府就真的没有还债的机会了吗?其实IMF还是给了阿根廷政府的喘息机会的,IMF强调阿根廷应该积极和债权人对话,让债权人帮助阿根廷完成债务重组,IMF作为阿根廷最大的债权人,要想偿还债务,阿根廷可能要牺牲未来两年收入的四分之一才能完成,但这是不可能的,所以只能希望IMF将阿根廷的偿还期限延长,同时阿根廷也需要尽快制定一个可靠的经济计划,恢复经济发展。
阿根廷面对着巨大的经济危机,其货币势必会大幅贬值,同时全球的避险情绪也会有所上升,投资者进场做单的机会也会随之而来,投资者要密切关注相关信息。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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