美联储9月不加息的最重要原因是什么
关键词:美联储9月不加息的最重要原因是什么
加息?不加息?加息?不加息?最近引起市场彷徨不安的加息问题终于在今日凌晨得到了不加息的结果。虽然之前市场很大一部分人认为不加息比较合理,但真正看到如此结果时,相信还是让很多人摔碎了玻璃心。
所以,现在就让我们一起来了解一下,为啥美联储无法升息吧,好歹不用“死不瞑目”啊!
通胀不高是硬伤
从FOMC公布的消息来看,通胀疲软是无法加息的重要原因之一。PCE、CPI持续低于美联储长期目标,一定程度上反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌,经济发展受限的态势。
此外,最新出炉的CPI数据不及预期,更是显示出当前经济活动略受抑制的态势,这可能增加通胀下行的压力。
通胀本来就未达目标,现在出现衰退,要是再加息,美国的经济要不要增长了!
海外风险未消
除了通胀外,海外风险未消也美联储未能加息的重要原因,美联储较为明确的表示出中国经济增速放缓、股灾是导致暂不加息的因素。美联储主席耶伦还称,预计中国经济增速会随着时间的推移而进一步放缓。
如果中国经济继续放缓,很可能会拖来到全球经济的发展,继而抑制到美国的经济活动,施压通胀。
英国央行行长卡尼也曾发言表示,若中国经济放缓至3%,将会拖累全球经济0.3个百分点,拖累英国经济0.1个百分点。
另外,中国此前曾宣布人民币降息降准,这从另一个角度来说,已经间接使美元升值了。
除了这些因素以外,美联储不加息的原因还有不少,但归根结底,其无法加息的重要原因还是在于美国的通胀水平无法支撑加息带来的影响。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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