通胀数据达到什么标准是最适合加息
关键词：通胀数据达到什么标准是最适合加息
受到昨夜美国CPI数据表现不好的影响，市场对于9月加息的情绪进一步消退，但是昨夜具体数据显示未季调核心CPI虽然不及预期1.9%，但是仍有1.8%，数值十分接近目标2%，为什么会削弱加息预期？既然1.8%不适合加息，那么通胀数据达到什么标准才最适合加息呢？
达到目标最稳妥
既然美联储制定了2%的通胀目标，那么就表明在经过合理分析，只要当美联储通胀达到2%后，如果美国不控制通胀，就可能会引起通货膨胀，而未达2%，则表明美国的经济仍有良性的发展空间。因此，通胀数据当然是刚好达到目标时加息最为稳妥。
未达目标但持续增长也合适
相信大家都知道，国家政策出台到政策开始发挥效果是需要一段时间的，也就是说政策的效果有滞后性。而当通胀数据一直维持在稳定增长水平时，如果达到2%再加息，那么在政策效用显现之前，通胀水平就可能超过2%的水平，那么那时为了应对2%通胀水平的政策很可能会无法控制目前通胀超过2%的情况，届时就可能会引起恶性通货膨胀。
因此，如果通胀数据呈现出持续增长态势时，至接近目标2%水平之前，也是可以加息的。
总的来说就是通胀数据符合向好预期时，加息才比较合理。所以从这里来看，本次公布的8月核心CPI年率不及预期1.9%，且CPI月率下跌0.1%，表示出通胀回升势头疲软，当然会削弱美联储9月加息的可能。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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