人民币还会贬值吗
关键词：人民币还会贬值吗
8月11日，中国央行宣布人民币对美元中间价贬值，致使人民币在三天时间内对美元中间价从6.116贬至6.40，这引起了全球市场的震动，欧美股市纷纷下挫，大宗商品和原油价格加速暴跌，此外，还引起了一些东南亚国家货币的贬值。那么，人民币未来还会不会继续贬值呢？现在，大田小编来为大家分析一下。
一、从央行的态度来看
在央行宣布贬值后，面对有关人民币是否会持续贬值的问题，央行曾作出，“人民币汇率不存在贬值基础。”的回答。另外，央行还称，“短暂的磨合期过后，外汇市场日内的汇率波动以及由此带来的人民币汇率中间价的变动将会逐渐趋向合理平稳。”
从上图可以看到在经过贬值之后，美元兑人民币的汇率逐渐趋于在一个范围内波动，虽然比贬值前范围要大，但目前中国放开了汇率管制，汇率在一定范围波动，小编觉得还是比较合理的。从这里看来，人民币汇率的变动确实有趋向于合理平稳的态势。
二、从贬值时外部因素来看
此次人民币汇率中间价改革的目的，在于人民国际化以及实现人民币加入SDR。小编觉得这属于国家战略的的一项内容，从这里来看，人民币贬值的幅度是可控的，但是当时刚好遇到美元强劲、美联储加息预期乐观的影响，才会引起市场对人民币贬值持有很强的预期，从而引起大量投资者抛售人民币，致使人民币贬值幅度拉大。
此外，无论是加入SDR、人民币国际化，还是资本项目的放开，这都要求有相对稳定的汇率环境，若人民币持续贬值，那么这些将无法实现。因此，大田小编认为，这次人民币的贬值是不会持续的，未来人民币汇率将会在一个新的均衡范围内平稳波动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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