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欧元处于暴涨边缘 黄金或从中得益

关键字:黄金走势

据外媒报道,周四(5月8日)晚间的欧洲央行会议料维持现行利率水平不变。欧元在会议后有望走强,而美元则可能下跌,黄金或从中获利。

市场对欧洲央行将会采取行动,进一步刺激经济、对抗通缩阴影的预期仍增强,但一些分析师却提醒,欧洲央行在此次会议上会按兵不动。

分析师Christopher Vecchio指出,自欧洲央行4月会议之后,经济数据出现回升——4月调和通胀年率0.7%,信贷环境也有所改善,将动摇欧洲央行行动的决心。

纽约梅隆银行(Bank of New York Mellon)高级汇市策略师Neil Mellor也同样认为,ECB此次不会有大动作,但是尚不知欧元后续反应,以及黄金市场会受到何种影响。

周三(5月7日)离岸市场上,欧元/美元最高触及1.3951。Mellor和 Vecchio都认为,欧元走强令人担忧,但欧洲央行似乎缺乏有效抑制手段。

上述两位投资分析师都一致认为,利率水平差异以及对美国经济前景的担忧使得欧元一路坚挺。

Vecchio补充说,“基本面上看,欧元弱于美元,但除非欧元/美元升至1.40上方,否则我不会入场做空。”

Mellor认为,因美元自身疲软,预计欧洲央行会议不会给欧元带来显著的下行风险。他声称,“欧元/美元汇价在‘爆发式上涨’的边缘。如果欧洲央行会议暗示不准备放松货币政策,那么将点燃欧元上涨的导火索。而如果欧元上涨,美元走低,黄金将获益。”

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