摩根大通看空2014年金价
关键字：摩根大通投行、2014年金价走势、2014年黄金价格走势
摩根大通周一(4月7日)报告称,今年内金价走势偏空,审慎看多铜，同时发布了未来3或4季度的油、金、铜季度均价预期,预计布兰特原油未来4季(2014Q2-2015Q1)均价分别为102、105、105和103美元/桶,今年2-4季的平均金价依次为1250、1260和1285美元/盎司。摩根大通对铜价今年第四季均价的预期为6950美元/吨,将高于目前的6646美元,今年二季度有望达到7100美元,三季度将回调至6750美元。
普氏能源信息(Platts)报导,上海期货交易所4月4日公布的每周库存报告显示,上周铜库存较前周减少11%至172,370公吨,为连续第三周减少。中国海关的数据显示,大陆二月精炼铜进口量为279,293公吨,此较前月减少30%,但较去年同期则增加30%。
高盛报告认为大陆的大宗商品贸易融资交易(如融资铜)将在中期逐步消失(未来12-24个月),这主要受到外汇对冲成本上升的驱动,对冲成本会缓慢侵蚀贸易融资的利润空间,并最终扼杀利差的套利空间。高盛预期为了管理热钱的流入周期,大陆将会继续增加人民币汇率的波动,因此增加了广大市场参与者进行外汇对冲的成本,也增加了商品贸易融资交易的汇率对冲成本。该外汇政策前景与大陆在最终放松资本管制前逐步扩大人民币日内波幅的政策方向一致,而且根据高盛经济学家的预期,这很可能在人民币与美元利率差异消失之前发生。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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