贝莱德：2014年金价于1250-1350波动
关键字：贝莱德矿业、2014年国际金价走势
贝莱德(BlackRock)全球矿业信托经理Catherine Raw周一(3月31日)接受采访时表示，在2013年国际金价下跌28%后，预计今年国际金价将在1250-1350美元间震荡，最终或在一个价位附近站稳。
去年四季度黄金期货市场的抛售频率明显放缓，同时黄金ETF持仓外流的情况也逐步改善，故Raw认为金市正在发生重要改变。
她表示，“黄金期货市场的下行风险正逐渐减小，相比之下黄金股还是有一定的风险。不过，我们对未来金价抱有更乐观的态度，预计价格将逐步企稳。今年发生的最大变化要属黄金ETF大规模抛售的停止。”
然而，尽管黄金的前景较为积极，但Raw也警告称期货市场仍存在一些震荡，同时宏观经济时间的变化也会触发一定的风险溢价。
Raw强调，“今年黄金ETF持仓曾出现大幅的流入，但目前流入量已开始出现下滑，这主要是因为期货市场边际买家和卖家的动作影响的不是均价，而是当日价格，因此造就了金价的波动。年初至今金价的波动实际上都是由期货市场的边际买家和卖家引起的。”
鉴于上述理由，Raw认为今年剩下的时间里金价将在1250-1350美元间震荡，最终或在一个价位附近站稳。然而一些风险事件比如乌克兰危机将刺激风险溢价，因为届时投资者会因避险情绪买入黄金，导致金价较大幅度的波动。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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