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德意志银行:黄金现货涨 实金需求走强

关键字:黄金现货

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)指出,近期黄金投资远期利率(GOFO)已降至负值,同时期金市场再度出现现货溢价的现象,暗示最近实物金需求仍在走强,投资者希望获得实物交割。

一般情况,因资金成本和仓储成本,现货合约的价格会略低于其他远期合约。而2月合约对4月和6月的温和升水,这种负向市场或许暗示—现阶段市场情绪正朝实物偏好转变。

该行表示:“结合GOFO跌至负值区以及黄金远期曲线进入现货溢价状态来看,近期的实物金需求可能非常强势。出现这一现象的原因主要是近期新兴市场风险走弱以及美国实体经济数据疲软的影响。”

某著名投资人表示:“由于黄金仓储成本较高,较少出现现货溢价,黄金现货永远都不应该出现溢价,但现在确实发生了。2月期金合约现货溢价的现象已经持续数周,这意味着供应紧张。”

德意志银行当时补充道:“日内黄金远期曲线有重回期货溢价的趋势,这可能暗示整个黄金市场将重新开始正常化。”

 

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