美银美林：实物需求乏 黄金将跌至1100
关键字：实物黄金
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)认为，由于投资者们战略性的抛售，而中国和印度的实物需求又有所缺乏，预计今年金价会跌至1000美元/盎司。
“如果投资者们停止售出黄金，那么金价可能被稳定在1200美元/盎司，”美银美林的分析师们在近期的一份报告中说，“但这不是我们所预期的基本情况，更可能发生的是投资者们继续削减自己持有的黄金。我们的模型认为这可能把金价推低至1000美元/盎司。”
此外，美银美林还认为中国和印度都缺乏实物黄金需求的支撑，“在传统的实物黄金市场，印度和中国买家的购买可能也不足以阻止金价再下跌。”
近期投资银行分析师们都警告说印度对黄金进口限制的放松可能会被推迟到下一个财年，会在4月中的大选后。
此外，美银美林的分析师们认为低通胀和美国十年前国债收益率的上涨也对金价形成了压力。此前在1月9日该行将今年金价预期下调至1150美元/盎司。
不过美银美林的分析师们也提醒称，由于金价下跌，矿企产量的减少以及意料外的通胀都可能在今年下半年对金价有推动作用。
“我们认为目前通胀预期还是比较弱的，”分析师们说，“但是对意料外通胀的担忧以及美国就业水平和GDP增长间的差别都可能让买家们重新回来。”
一些经济学家认为，尽管美国有着历史高度的失业，但可就业人数实际是在减少，因此实际上的美国经济停滞并没有一些人认为的那么大。“因此，”美银美林分析师们说，“今年对黄金投资者们来说是有很有趣的切入点的。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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